Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Tuesday 28 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 56649 (+1253) 1008043 (+21225) 137739 (+18962) 813655 (+1010)
Italy 26977 (+333) 199414 (+1739) 66624 (+1696) 105813 (-290)
Spain 23521 (+331) 229422 (+2793) 120832 (+3105) 85069 (-643)
France 23293 (+437) 165842 (+3742) 45513 (+610) 97036 (+2695)
United Kingdom 21092 (+360) 157149 (+4309) 0 (+0) 136057 (+3949)
Belgium 7207 (+113) 46687 (+553) 10878 (+93) 28602 (+347)
Germany 6061 (+85) 158434 (+664) 114500 (+2500) 37873 (-1921)
Iran 5806 (+96) 91472 (+991) 70933 (+1276) 14733 (-381)
China 4633 (+1) 82830 (+3) 77474 (+80) 723 (-78)
Brazil 4543 (+275) 66501 (+3714) 31142 (+990) 30816 (+2449)
Netherlands 4518 (+43) 38245 (+400) 0 (+0) 33727 (+357)
Turkey 2900 (+95) 112261 (+2131) 33791 (+4651) 75570 (-2615)
Canada 2704 (+144) 48458 (+1563) 18215 (+894) 27539 (+525)
Sweden 2274 (+80) 18926 (+286) 1005 (+0) 15647 (+206)
Switzerland 1665 (+55) 29164 (+103) 22200 (+400) 5299 (-352)
Mexico 1351 (+46) 14677 (+835) 8354 (+1205) 4972 (-416)
Ireland 1102 (+15) 19648 (+386) 9233 (+0) 9313 (+371)
India 939 (+57) 29451 (+1561) 7137 (+614) 21375 (+890)
Portugal 928 (+25) 24027 (+163) 1357 (+28) 21742 (+110)
Russia 794 (+47) 87147 (+6198) 7346 (+579) 79007 (+5572)
Peru 782 (+54) 28699 (+1182) 8425 (+337) 19492 (+791)
Indonesia 765 (+22) 9096 (+214) 1151 (+44) 7180 (+148)
Ecuador 663 (+87) 23240 (+521) 1557 (+191) 21020 (+243)
Romania 641 (+22) 11339 (+303) 3141 (+87) 7557 (+194)
Poland 562 (+27) 11902 (+285) 2466 (+201) 8874 (+57)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 206569 (+4318) 2976251 (+66439) 841678 (+42412)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 207184 ( +3505) 2898612 ( +40602) 834025 ( +26306)
Wed 29 April 2020 210370 ( +3185) 2935702 ( +37090) 858855 ( +24830)
Thu 30 April 2020 213254 ( +2885) 2969493 ( +33791) 882168 ( +23313)
Fri 01 May 2020 215859 ( +2604) 3000205 ( +30712) 903950 ( +21782)
Sat 02 May 2020 218204 ( +2345) 3028056 ( +27851) 924206 ( +20257)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 4633 (+1) 82830 (+3) 77474 (+80)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 3684 ( +0) 81515 ( +0) 76809 ( +3)
Wed 29 April 2020 3684 ( +0) 81515 ( +0) 76812 ( +3)
Thu 30 April 2020 3684 ( +0) 81515 ( +0) 76815 ( +3)
Fri 01 May 2020 3685 ( +0) 81515 ( +0) 76817 ( +2)
Sat 02 May 2020 3685 ( +0) 81515 ( +0) 76819 ( +2)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 23521 (+331) 229422 (+2793) 120832 (+3105)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 22437 ( +85) 216361 ( +909) 104280 ( +1454)
Wed 29 April 2020 22509 ( +73) 217156 ( +794) 105584 ( +1304)
Thu 30 April 2020 22572 ( +62) 217850 ( +694) 106750 ( +1166)
Fri 01 May 2020 22625 ( +53) 218456 ( +606) 107789 ( +1039)
Sat 02 May 2020 22671 ( +46) 218984 ( +528) 108713 ( +924)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 26977 (+333) 199414 (+1739) 66624 (+1696)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 25909 ( +131) 191006 ( +774) 67435 ( +1897)
Wed 29 April 2020 26025 ( +116) 191699 ( +693) 69263 ( +1827)
Thu 30 April 2020 26129 ( +103) 192319 ( +620) 71017 ( +1754)
Fri 01 May 2020 26221 ( +92) 192874 ( +554) 72695 ( +1678)
Sat 02 May 2020 26302 ( +82) 193368 ( +495) 74295 ( +1600)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 21092 (+360) 157149 (+4309) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 20806 ( +279) 154670 ( +2440) nan ( +nan)
Wed 29 April 2020 21047 ( +242) 156859 ( +2189) nan ( +nan)
Thu 30 April 2020 21256 ( +208) 158817 ( +1958) nan ( +nan)
Fri 01 May 2020 21435 ( +179) 160563 ( +1746) nan ( +nan)
Sat 02 May 2020 21589 ( +154) 162115 ( +1552) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 56649 (+1253) 1008043 (+21225) 137739 (+18962)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 57719 ( +1213) 976318 ( +13500) 137244 ( +8513)
Wed 29 April 2020 58788 ( +1069) 988400 ( +12082) 145768 ( +8525)
Thu 30 April 2020 59724 ( +936) 999180 ( +10780) 154241 ( +8472)
Fri 01 May 2020 60541 ( +817) 1008772 ( +9591) 162599 ( +8358)
Sat 02 May 2020 61250 ( +710) 1017285 ( +8513) 170782 ( +8184)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 23293 (+437) 165842 (+3742) 45513 (+610)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 22864 ( +159) 163128 ( +430) 57624 ( +3359)
Wed 29 April 2020 22999 ( +135) 163489 ( +361) 61191 ( +3567)
Thu 30 April 2020 23114 ( +115) 163793 ( +303) 64979 ( +3788)
Fri 01 May 2020 23212 ( +98) 164047 ( +254) 69002 ( +4023)
Sat 02 May 2020 23295 ( +83) 164260 ( +213) 73273 ( +4272)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 6061 (+85) 158434 (+664) 114500 (+2500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 6082 ( +91) 153367 ( +399) 112550 ( +1400)
Wed 29 April 2020 6163 ( +81) 153711 ( +343) 113770 ( +1220)
Thu 30 April 2020 6234 ( +71) 154005 ( +295) 114830 ( +1060)
Fri 01 May 2020 6296 ( +62) 154259 ( +253) 115748 ( +918)
Sat 02 May 2020 6350 ( +54) 154476 ( +217) 116541 ( +793)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 4518 (+43) 38245 (+400) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 4425 ( +43) 37730 ( +360) 192 ( +0)
Wed 29 April 2020 4463 ( +38) 38053 ( +324) 192 ( +0)
Thu 30 April 2020 4497 ( +34) 38344 ( +291) 192 ( +0)
Fri 01 May 2020 4526 ( +29) 38604 ( +260) 192 ( +0)
Sat 02 May 2020 4552 ( +26) 38838 ( +233) 192 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 7207 (+113) 46687 (+553) 10878 (+93)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 7137 ( +86) 45931 ( +477) 10568 ( +111)
Wed 29 April 2020 7211 ( +73) 46357 ( +426) 10665 ( +97)
Thu 30 April 2020 7273 ( +62) 46737 ( +380) 10750 ( +85)
Fri 01 May 2020 7326 ( +53) 47076 ( +338) 10823 ( +74)
Sat 02 May 2020 7370 ( +45) 47376 ( +301) 10887 ( +64)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 2274 (+80) 18926 (+286) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 2345 ( +60) 19027 ( +396) 983 ( +51)
Wed 29 April 2020 2400 ( +55) 19400 ( +373) 1034 ( +51)
Thu 30 April 2020 2449 ( +50) 19749 ( +349) 1086 ( +51)
Fri 01 May 2020 2494 ( +45) 20075 ( +326) 1136 ( +51)
Sat 02 May 2020 2534 ( +40) 20378 ( +304) 1186 ( +50)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 562 (+27) 11902 (+285) 2466 (+201)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 555 ( +14) 11665 ( +175) 2669 ( +194)
Wed 29 April 2020 568 ( +13) 11823 ( +158) 2860 ( +191)
Thu 30 April 2020 580 ( +12) 11965 ( +142) 3046 ( +186)
Fri 01 May 2020 590 ( +11) 12093 ( +128) 3225 ( +178)
Sat 02 May 2020 600 ( +9) 12207 ( +114) 3394 ( +169)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 1665 (+55) 29164 (+103) 22200 (+400)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 1608 ( +11) 28301 ( +38) 21530 ( +169)
Wed 29 April 2020 1617 ( +10) 28334 ( +32) 21673 ( +143)
Thu 30 April 2020 1626 ( +8) 28361 ( +28) 21793 ( +121)
Fri 01 May 2020 1633 ( +7) 28385 ( +24) 21895 ( +102)
Sat 02 May 2020 1639 ( +6) 28405 ( +20) 21981 ( +86)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 5806 (+96) 91472 (+991) 70933 (+1276)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 5581 ( +29) 90108 ( +523) 72661 ( +1233)
Wed 29 April 2020 5606 ( +26) 90582 ( +474) 73792 ( +1131)
Thu 30 April 2020 5630 ( +23) 91011 ( +429) 74826 ( +1034)
Fri 01 May 2020 5651 ( +21) 91398 ( +387) 75769 ( +943)
Sat 02 May 2020 5670 ( +19) 91747 ( +349) 76626 ( +858)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.